2018 – a year for the most people most usal as all the years before, but there is a small circus moving from town to town since 2016 which we call “Blockchain Conferences”
At the beginning these conferences has been built to attract people understanding what blockchain technology is. The first conference I have been the opener was saying
“It took us 2 years to understand how Bitcoin is working and now we understand Blockchain technology”.
A remarkable sentence looking back from 2018 and see in the first half the most valuable hacks of Blockchain, since the DAO Hack of ETH.
Moreover a whole industry started to gain money only by naming their new projects “Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrencies”.
What we have seen is something called initial coin offering (ico) what was meant as a digital pendant for ipo but greediness of people have transformed so called “security token” from an asset proof (similar to pre-shares before a company goes to the stock market) to a new coin which could be handled over different exchanges because these are not regulated like Bitcoin at the moment.
We see a whole bunch of these ICO and selling their tokens as a form of crowdfunding with 100% risk of loss.
Right now we see more than 95% are scams or even fail after 4 months. Funny to see it was in 2017 also but now the tokenization and ICO`s doubled their volume in 2018.
More than that the risk for Ethereum is like a Damocles sword. Meanwhile the worth in ETH (because tokens build on ETH ERC-23 Protocol) have more volume than ETH itself in circulation. In a scenario where all tokens be sold at a panic momentum ETH Price will straight going 0.
Another report also shows that $1.7 billion got lost in hacks. Therefor a lot of investigators think its only the top of the ice mountain and many companies don `t declare their losses.
Another thing about blockchain technology is the fact Blockchain is not there and more than 75 % of all asked companies claimed not to know why they should use. From the rest a lot of them is skeptical that it will help solving problems.
In fact they think blockchain is overhyped.
That`s also what Gardener was seeing clear and says the circle of invention would be the next 10 years.
Compared with bitcoin it means that bitcoin is straight going for mass adoption before blockchain technology steps into the field.
The whole market was also understanding what I call the real value of bitcoins and what I said in my reports altcoin will starve sooner or later and it would be fasten if technology “liquid” is coming around an atomic swap-based system which converts altocoins into tokens and transport them over bitcoin network serving exchanges. A lot of developer will see that altcoins will not be necessary anymore.
But even if we are seeing the starving of ICO`s it’s like the old world in blockhain holding on by rename things.
The new word is created as “STO” Security Tokens. These tokens should be regulated ICOs and that`s the mystique about it. If they are controlled by third parties and regulators this only means it`s the same as in the normal stock exchange when you go for papers.
This is also where so called “Smart Contracts” find their end and it`s the problem of the whole blockchain industry.
The promises which never came alive
These few pictures show you a lot of Blockchain projects which never happened and also never come alive.
Beginning selling ideas was starting in the energy sector, because they are all afraid normal user can become their own energy exchange owner backed up by solar plants on their own.
Today we neither see independent “be your own energizer” companies on blockchain than professionals using that technology. The products above only ideas.
More than $465 Million from 2016 to 2017 was lost in research these projects.
The big winners are the exchanges !
Far away from the energy sector on the conferences in the beginning was discussed the infrastructure of Blockchains and the ecosystem around with tokens and exchanges. If you see the perspective on revenues estimated from a point of view today nothing happens after 2 years only the exchanges gains revenues far away from all dreams they had at the very beginning.
Also today a report says that most of the Exchanges tricking with the volume of trading. We see more than 1500 Coins and a research said only 64 coins have real value behind. So hyped coins as IOTA for example are not in. Worthless to remind that altcoins only have a trading factor but no real value behind like Bitcoin does.
What happened through the “ecosystem” is simply clear
How the „NEW ECONOMY“ KILLS THEIR OWN ADVANTAGES BY MAKING THE OLD WORLD DIGITAL
Now it is only a way for old finance world to use a new way to charge more fees to customers on both ends.
As you can see the stats that blockchain and cryptocurrency like bitcoin will change the world ended here.
But they made the plan without bitcoin. As bitcoin acceptance is growing OTC and UTC is growing without exchanges. Bitcoins sold on street and closed groups. The whole KYC economy was producing adoption of bitcoins in unknown rooms all over the world. Even India and China have now banned all Bitcoin access we see Bitcoin growing there.
The proof that you can`t stop people from start being independent of governments.
That is of course a silent process.
THE END OF BITCOIN IN A BANKING ENVIRONMENT ?
With technology like lightning, atomic swaps and other implementations like a build in tumbler and vpn bitcoin will become not trackable in the future.
Also we will see exchanges growing without kyc to open the bitcoin access to third world countries and where it is forbidden.
And the magic you can now see is of all the blockchain projects you can see today on graphs like this one, no one is alive or working in an adoption.
The reason is easy to tell. Like you see here that`s exactly how it should work
But it doesn`t work because the layer structure hasn’t got a proven algorithm to work. Everyone in the world is today attacked by the phrase “proof of…” and this shows that nothing works because every new system shouts out a new “Proof of…” system. The interaction of the layers is not based like an IP layer or OSI reference model. This graph shows exactly to coders where the problem is. Also, on top there is the application layer baked by service like smart contracts. Smart contracts are hackable because they are layers on a top level you can see and extract by compilation. That`s the reason why Satoshi shuts down the open op function for it in 2009 by explaining the security risk. Ethereum hasn`t learned from this lesson and now sees additional problems to their own bugs.
As you can see tokens should be an infrastructure layer but only as security tokens and not as “STO” what a replacement for ICO is.
Why Blockchains hackable ?
A so called “blockchain” to produce is as easy.
- You can use google finding Java Script blockchain creator
- You can also use your knowledge about IT explained on Microsoft:
Create some databases in Access Software
Fill these Databases with Excel information from your enterprise structure
Make your databases redundant by copying them in real time to AWS hoster
Finally create a “distributed ledger” by creating a pivot over the Databases.
Now you have a distributed ledger because you can send it also edited out to the database network who joins you over their own enterprise structure doing the same steps as above mentioned.
That`s why hackers can hack blockchains. Only fishing the access datas from the user database and getting in. Tokens nothing else by making an opt out of some data results to a different sheet which you call than wallet.
The prove it works was brought to us by iota which built an Visual Basic wallet.
Is there a way out?
No, because banks and the fintec sector is depended on 3rdparties. Telling the truth, no one will kill 3rdparty services because it`s a huge business serving ten thousand of work places and pyramid systems which makes 1/3 of the revenues in sum at an all over stat of how economy and money flows today. Breaking up this system by technology will kill governments and bank interests both. Bercause interests rates are build through various in money flows and making on top value for revenues.
Our debt system is working completely on 3rdparties. Plans forecast that no one in the future should have ownership but paying a monthly based lifetime fee to get the right to access f. e. A car or a house. This will feed the bear and keep the fiat money pyramid which is not baked by real value.
What we will see at the next economy crises is fatal. Not only whipping out the fiat market, but also burn the “safe harbor” for 2/3 of all cryptocurrencies users. Services like coinbase and kraken will be shut down immediately. The people can`t access their private keys and their invest is gone for good.
In fact no one owns Cryptocurrencies in Future Contracts or ETF`s which hopefully never come. In a crises your papers become worthless.
Why should there be a crises?
The real estate market in the US is overblown again. Trump was cutting of economy interests of foreign countries like Canada and Germany in steel and stops serving the world economy system by using “America first” terms.
No country outside is still going the same way. In Europe most of the countries have problem with the social system. It simply costs too much. Germany and France at the end of the ability to serve these systems. Increasing taxes results.
Spain and Italy nearby Bankruptcy and Turkish currency is losing support because of sanctions. Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina, Angola and so on will whip of dollars sooner or later.
And the so-called stable coins for exchanges got the exitus of exchanges if Bitcoin will jump over 20000 again. So, they print more tether or whatever produce nothing else than printing more and more dollar leading in higher inflation.
Mario Draghi will increase the interest rate for Europe and the Federal Exchange Reserve Bank in US will lower their interest rate, as Trump was saying the bank system as it is should not work this way any longer.
Many people believe the crises will come around 2020-2022.
Bitcoin is growing. But as long people only started keeping bitcoin not make them circulate in an economy blockchain technology will not be adopted. But this would be a keystone to solve the crises.
Bitcoins will increase in a way we can`t imagine because the asset market will lose straight and those holding Bitcoins will be the new rich.
However. We are far away from understanding in the mass. But the mass is the changing factor.
We will see !